Prediction Markets Weekly

Synthesised from the week's L1 source notes under ../01 Sources/. The azimuth-curator
fleet role evolves this single note in place each week. A prediction-market quoted price is
an observed fact — what traders are currently paying, recorded by the venue — so azimuth
reports it the same way it reports a gas-storage figure or an earthquake magnitude. It is
not a forecast azimuth makes, and not an instruction to trade: odds are not
predictions, and nothing here is investment advice. azimuth reports the priced number and its
source, and takes no position on the underlying question. (This cycle absorbs the
2026-08-18 through 08-20 daily ingests, extending the no-rotation run that began after
the ninth rotation landed on 08-01: Polymarket's "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" has
now remained the feed's sole live listing across fourteen straight pulls, 2026-08-07 through
2026-08-20, with the quoted yes price drifting from 0.185 on 08-07 down to 0.165 by 08-15 and
then ticking back up to 0.175 on 08-18 and holding there through 08-20, while cumulative
volume rose from ~$57.49M to ~$59.07M over the run.)

This week at a glance

• The WorldMonitor prediction-market feed's single live listing held steady this cycle — an
  extended no-rotation run, the first since the ninth rotation landed on the 08-01 pull:
  Polymarket's "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" remained the sole contract across all
  fourteen daily pulls, 2026-08-07 through 2026-08-20 (prediction-markets).
• The quoted yes price ticked up to 0.175 (17.5% implied probability) on the 08-18 pull and held
  there through 08-20 — a 1.0-percentage-point rise off the 0.165 (16.5%) it had held on
  08-15/08-16/08-17, though still 1.0 point below the 0.185 (18.5%) at the 08-07 start of the run,
  a band it has fluctuated between 0.155 and 0.185 across. The venue's number is recorded as an
  observed fact; azimuth takes no position on the underlying question (prediction-markets).
• Cumulative traded volume rose across the run from $57,492,676 (08-07) to $59,072,191
  (08-20) — a ~$1.58M / ~2.7% increase over the run, including a ~$144,529 (~0.24%)
  day-on-day rise from 08-19's $58,927,662 — continuing the steady growth this listing has shown
  since its 07-31 debut, and still the deepest book recorded in the brief's run. Volume is
  reported as a measure of liquidity behind the quoted odds, not as a signal to act on
  (prediction-markets).

The market

• Polymarket's quoted yes price of 0.175 (as of the 08-20 pull, unchanged from 08-18/08-19) is
  the observed datum: traders are collectively paying about 17.5 cents for a contract that pays out
  1.00 if the market's stated condition — a US invasion of Iran before 2027 — resolves true, which
  by construction reads as a 17.5% implied probability priced by the venue, up 1.0 point from
  the 0.165 (16.5%) it held on 08-15/08-17 but down from 0.245 (24.5%) on the ninth-rotation
  debut and 0.185 (18.5%) on the 08-07 pull at the start of the run. The question is a
  geopolitical one; azimuth's report is not a call on it: it records the venue's number and takes
  no position on the outcome or the market's resolution (prediction-markets).
• The $59,072,191 cumulative traded volume recorded on the 08-20 pull is the liquidity behind
  that price, up ~$144,529 from $58,927,662 on the 08-19 pull and up from $57,492,676 on
  the 08-07 pull — a continuation of the steady book growth this listing has shown since it first
  appeared on 07-31, and still the deepest book the brief has recorded. Volume is reported as a
  measure of how much weight sits behind the quoted odds, not as a signal to act on
  (prediction-markets).

Reading the week

• An extended no-rotation run: the feed's single live contract is still Polymarket's "Will the
  U.S. invade Iran before 2027?", and the venue's quoted price ticked up to a 17.5% implied
  probability on 08-18 and held there through 08-20 — up 1.0 point from the 16.5% of 08-15/08-17,
  down from 18.5% at the 08-07 start of the run — while cumulative volume grew ~$1.58M across
  the run to $59,072,191, the deepest book yet recorded. azimuth states what was recorded and
  stops there: the odds are the market's, not
  azimuth's, and the editorial line forbids reading them as either a forecast or a reason to
  trade (prediction-markets).
• Breadth note (honest scope): the live feed still lists exactly one market at a time. The
  current listing has now held without rotating for fourteen straight daily pulls (2026-08-07
  through 2026-08-20) — the longest no-rotation stretch in the brief's run — following nine
  rotations recorded earlier (Greenland → Russia → Israel → US–Iran uranium → Iran–MOU →
  Iran-regime → Base-token → Fed-rate-cuts → US-invade-Iran). A week-on-week price move, when the
  listing holds like this, is a genuine within-listing comparison, though continuity is never
  guaranteed across future cycles. As the upstream feed carries a broader market set, this note
  widens to report the spread of priced questions; until then it tracks whatever single market
  the feed quotes, reporting price, volume and listing changes as observed facts
  (prediction-markets).

Changelog

• 2026-08-20 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W34): absorbed the 2026-08-18 through 08-20 ingest — no listing rotation, extending the no-rotation run to fourteen straight pulls (2026-08-07 through 2026-08-20). Polymarket's "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" remained the sole listed contract; yes price ticked up to 0.175 (17.5% implied probability) on 08-18 and held there through 08-20 — a 1.0-percentage-point rise off the 0.165 (16.5%) held on 08-15/08-17; cumulative volume rose from $58,651,476 (08-17) to $59,072,191 (08-20) — a ~$420,715 / ~0.72% increase, and ~$1.58M / ~2.7% above the 08-07 start of the run — still the deepest book recorded in the brief's run. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question (prediction-markets).
• 2026-08-17 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W34): absorbed the 2026-08-17 ingest — no listing rotation, extending the no-rotation run to eleven straight pulls (2026-08-07 through 2026-08-17). Polymarket's "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" remained the sole listed contract; yes price held flat at 0.165 (16.5% implied probability) for a third straight pull (08-15/08-16/08-17), unchanged day-on-day; cumulative volume rose from $58,604,885 (08-16) to $58,651,476 (08-17) — a ~$46,591 / ~0.08% day-on-day increase, and ~$1.16M / ~2.0% above the 08-07 start of the run — still the deepest book recorded in the brief's run. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question (prediction-markets).
• 2026-08-16 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W33): absorbed the 2026-08-14 through 2026-08-16 ingest — no listing rotation; the no-rotation run since the 08-01 ninth rotation now extends to ten straight pulls. Polymarket's "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" remained the sole listed contract; yes price eased from 0.175 (17.5% implied probability) on 08-13/08-14 to 0.165 (16.5%) on 08-15/08-16 — a further 1.0-percentage-point decline, fluctuating 0.155–0.185 over the full 08-07 → 08-16 run — while cumulative volume rose from $58,544,751 (08-13) to $58,604,885 (08-16), still the deepest book recorded in the brief's run. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question (prediction-markets).
• 2026-06-26 — first Prediction Markets Weekly cycle, written from the live 2026-06-26 ingest.
  Reports Polymarket's single live market ("Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?") at
  its quoted 0.105 yes price (10.5% implied probability) on $10.31M volume, framed strictly as an
  observed venue-quoted fact under the fact-vs-propaganda editorial line — no forecast, no
  investment framing, no position on the underlying question. This brief lands per Michael's
  an owner review (2026-06-26), which reversed the earlier hold (2026-06-24) and put
  prediction-markets in scope for the editorial lens. Single-market breadth noted as the current
  scope limit (prediction-markets).
• 2026-06-30 — daily-ingest flowback (2026-W27): the feed still lists exactly one market
  (Polymarket's "Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?"). Week-on-week the quoted yes
  price was unchanged at 0.105 (10.5% implied probability) while cumulative volume ticked
  marginally higher to $10.32M (from $10.31M). Reported as observed venue-quoted facts — no
  forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question; the brief's week and
  updated were advanced to record that the latest L1 day was absorbed (prediction-markets).
• 2026-07-02 — weekly synthesis (2026-W27): absorbed the 2026-07-01 and 2026-07-02 ingest days —
  a listing-rotation cycle. The feed's single live market changed: the Greenland-acquisition
  question was last carried on the 2026-07-01 pull (0.105 yes, $10.33M) and no longer appears;
  the 2026-07-02 pull instead lists Polymarket's "Putin out as President of Russia by
  December 31, 2026?" at a 0.115 yes price (11.5% implied probability) on $13.28M cumulative
  volume, resolving 2026-12-31. Rewrote the at-a-glance, market and reading sections around the
  new listing and noted in the breadth scope that the single-market listing can rotate.
  Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no
  position on the underlying (political) question (prediction-markets).
• 2026-07-13 — weekly synthesis (2026-W29): absorbed the 2026-07-13 ingest after an 11-day
  curator gap — another listing-rotation cycle. The feed's single live market changed again: the
  "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?" question was last carried on the
  2026-07-02 pull (0.115 yes, $13.28M) and no longer appears; the 2026-07-13 pull instead lists
  Polymarket's "Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?" at a 0.105 yes price
  (10.5% implied probability) on $26.50M cumulative volume, resolving 2026-12-31. Rewrote the
  at-a-glance, market and reading sections around the new listing and noted the single-market
  listing has now rotated three straight cycles. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact
  — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying (political) question
  (prediction-markets).
• 2026-07-15 — daily-ingest flowback (2026-W29): absorbed the 2026-07-14 and 2026-07-15 ingests —
  a fourth listing-rotation cycle. The Bennett/Israel question was last carried on the 2026-07-14
  pull (0.105 yes, $26.61M) and no longer appears; the 2026-07-15 pull instead lists Polymarket's
  "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?" at a 0.115 yes price (11.5% implied
  probability) on $28.50M cumulative volume — the largest of the four listings recorded —
  resolving end-2026. Rewrote the at-a-glance, market and reading sections around the new listing
  and extended the breadth note to four straight rotations. Venue-quoted price reported as an
  observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question
  (prediction-markets).
• 2026-07-18 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W29): absorbed the 2026-07-16 and 2026-07-17 ingests — no listing rotation. The "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?" market remained the sole listed contract; yes price held flat at 0.115 (11.5% implied probability) on both days; cumulative volume rose from $28,518,862 (07-16) to $28,528,722 (07-17), a ~$28K two-day increment (prediction-markets).
• 2026-07-21 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W30): absorbed the 07-18 through 07-20 ingests — a fifth listing rotation. The "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?" market (0.115 yes, ~$28.5M through 07-17) no longer appears; the 07-20 pull instead lists Polymarket's "Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?" at a 0.10 yes price (10% implied probability) on $7,439,764 cumulative volume, resolving 2026-07-31. Rewrote the at-a-glance, market and reading sections around the new listing and extended the breadth note to five straight rotations. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question (prediction-markets).
• 2026-07-23 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W30): absorbed the 07-21 through 07-23 ingests — a sixth listing rotation. The Iran–MOU-negotiations market carried on the 07-20 pull no longer appears; the 07-21 through 07-23 pulls instead all list Polymarket's "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?" at a 0.105 yes price (10.5% implied probability) on a steadily-growing book — $22,612,658 (07-21) → $22,797,334 (07-22) → $22,860,862 (07-23), resolving 2026-12-31. Rewrote the at-a-glance, market and reading sections around the new listing and extended the breadth note to six straight rotations. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question (prediction-markets).
• 2026-07-24 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W30): absorbed the 07-24 ingest — no listing rotation, no price move. Polymarket's "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?" remains the sole listed contract; yes price holds flat at 0.105 (10.5% implied probability); cumulative volume ticked up ~$138K to $22,999,308 (from $22,860,862 on 07-23), continuing the steady-growth pattern seen across all four days of this sub-cycle. Values refreshed in brief; frontmatter updated advanced to 2026-07-24. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question (prediction-markets).
• 2026-07-25 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W30): absorbed the 07-25 ingest — a seventh listing rotation. The "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?" market (0.105 yes, ~$23.0M through 07-24) no longer appears; the 07-25 pull instead lists Polymarket's "Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?" at a 0.12 yes price (12.0% implied probability) on $7,430,218 cumulative volume — a crypto/tech question after a long geopolitical run, on a much thinner book than the outgoing ~$23.0M listing. Rewrote the at-a-glance, market and reading sections around the new listing and extended the breadth note to seven straight rotations; because the question changed, price and volume are not week-on-week comparable. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question (prediction-markets).
• 2026-07-30 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W31): absorbed the 2026-07-26 through 2026-07-30 ingest after a five-day gap behind the live L1 — an eighth listing rotation. The "Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?" market (0.12 yes, ~$7.43M through 07-25) no longer appears; the 07-30 pull instead lists Polymarket's "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?" at a 0.891 yes price (89.1% implied probability) on $45,639,591 cumulative volume — the deepest book recorded in the brief's run, a US monetary-policy question after a crypto/tech one, resolving 2026-12-31. Rewrote the at-a-glance, market and reading sections around the new listing and extended the breadth note to eight straight rotations; because the question changed, price and volume are not week-on-week comparable. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question (prediction-markets).
• 2026-08-01 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W31): absorbed the 2026-07-31 and 2026-08-01 ingests — a ninth listing rotation. The "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?" market (0.891 yes, ~$45.64M through 07-30) no longer appears; the 07-31 pull instead lists Polymarket's "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" at a 0.245 yes price (24.5% implied probability) on $50,904,761 cumulative volume, and the 08-01 pull holds the same listing with the book ticking up ~$0.6M to $51,530,245 — the deepest recorded in the brief's run, resolving end-2026. Rewrote the at-a-glance, market and reading sections around the new listing and extended the breadth note to nine straight rotations; because the question changed, price and volume are not week-on-week comparable. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question (prediction-markets).
• 2026-08-13 — daily-ingest synthesis (2026-W33): absorbed the 2026-08-07 through 2026-08-13 ingest — no listing rotation, the first such week since the ninth rotation on 08-01. Polymarket's "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" remained the sole listed contract; yes price moved from 0.185 (18.5% implied probability) on 08-07 to 0.175 (17.5%) on 08-13 — a 1.0-percentage-point decline, fluctuating between 0.155 and 0.185 across the intervening daily pulls — while cumulative volume rose from $57,492,676 to $58,544,751 (~$1.05M / ~1.8% increase), still the deepest book recorded in the brief's run. Venue-quoted price reported as an observed fact — no forecast, no investment framing, no position on the underlying question (prediction-markets).